Renewable sources of electricity generation are continuing to grow strongly around the world, with global capacity expected to more than double by 2030, despite global geopolitical disruption, financial pressures and other supply chain issues, the International Energy Agency has said.
The disruptions are also expected to impact the COP28 agreement to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030. (Representative file photo)
This is mainly led by the outlook for India, Europe and most emerging and developing economies compared with last year’s forecast.
But, the forecast for growth in global renewable power capacity is revised down slightly, mainly due to policy changes in the United States and China.
The renewable energy growth forecast for the 2025-2030 period is 5% lower compared with last year’s report, reflecting policy, regulatory and market changes since October 2024, IEA said, adding that the forecast for the United States is revised down by almost 50%.
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This reflects several policy changes, including the earlier phase out of federal tax credits, new import restrictions, the suspension of new offshore wind leasing and restricting the permitting of onshore wind and solar PV projects on federal land. China’s shift from fixed tariffs to auctions is impacting project economics and lowering growth expectations also.
The disruptions are also expected to impact the COP28 agreement to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030. Global renewable power capacity is expected to reach 2.6 times its 2022 level by 2030 but fall short of the COP28 tripling pledge.
“This target can still be brought within reach if countries adopt enhanced policies to bridge gaps in both ambition and implementation. The accelerated case in this report sees global renewable capacity reaching 2.8 times its 2022 level by 2030 if countries minimise policy uncertainties, reduce permitting timelines, increase investment in grid infrastructure, expand flexibility to facilitate integration of variable renewables, and de-risk financing,” the report states.
On the brighter side, the outlook for renewables is more positive in India, Europe and most emerging economies. India’s renewable expansion is driven by higher auction volumes, new support for rooftop solar projects, and faster hydropower permitting. India is on track to meet its 2030 target and become the second-largest growth market for renewables, with capacity set to rise by 2.5 times in five years.
In the European Union, the growth forecast has been revised upwards slightly as a result of higher than expected utility-scale solar PV capacity installations, driven by strong corporate power purchase agreement (PPA) activity in Germany, Spain, Italy and Poland. This offsets a weaker outlook for offshore wind. The Middle East and North Africa forecast has been revised up by 25%, the biggest regional upgrade, due to rapid solar PV growth in Saudi Arabia. In Southeast Asia, solar PV and wind deployment is accelerating, with more ambitious targets and new auctions, the report states.
“The growth in global renewable capacity in the coming years will be dominated by solar PV – but with wind, hydropower, bioenergy and geothermal all contributing, too,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol in a statement.
“Solar PV is on course to account for some 80% of the increase in the world’s renewable capacity over the next five years. In addition to growth in established markets, solar is set to surge in economies such as Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and several Southeast Asian countries. As renewables’ role in electricity systems rises in many countries, policymakers need to pay close attention to supply chain security and grid integration challenges,” he added.
