Greg Hewitt, CEO of DHL Express U.S.
The first half of 2025 has seen a surprising resiliency in international trade, according to UN Trade and Development. Despite uncertainty over tariffs, continuing geopolitical conflicts and overall economic anxiety, global trade has grown by around $300 billion this year, led by U.S. imports and EU exports. While U.S. exports have not increased as robustly, the news is still good for the small businesses that are staying ahead of the competition by finding new audiences across borders.
As we move into Q3 and Q4, the outlook is more complex. The World Bank, for instance, predicts a slowdown due to tariffs and uncertainty—yet opportunities remain for small businesses that adapt quickly and keep exploring new markets.
To stay competitive, here are four trends for business owners to watch and steps to take.
1. Stay on top of tariffs.
New tariffs and retaliatory measures are impacting both businesses and consumers with added costs and uncertainty. In this environment, it’s important to prepare and have a plan in place to track modifications and mitigate cost exposure and manage change.
First, consider developing a clear system to monitor tariffs and new proposals regularly. Country-of-origin shifts, for instance, could reduce tariffs and duties for the products you import or export based on preferential treatment under free trade agreements.
Conduct a review of Harmonized System (HS) codes to ensure that your goods are properly classified for import or export, avoiding costly fines and ensuring compliance. A number of organizations provide online tariff trackers to assist, and logistics providers can offer up-to-date information about evolving tariff requirements.
Your plan could also include a review of fulfillment practices to target areas for savings that might offset new tariffs. Smart warehousing and fulfillment can help companies streamline and save through efficient storage, management, picking and distributing of goods.
2. Examine nearshoring and new growth markets.
The growth of nearshoring is opening opportunities for U.S. companies that manufacture products in other countries. Places like South America and Southeast Asia have become increasingly important production centers in recent years as businesses look for alternatives to China. Consider examining the cost-effectiveness and efficiencies of new and diverse manufacturing and procurement alternatives.
Even without large procurement teams, small businesses can make the shift by harnessing new software solutions—many enhanced by AI—and by creating stronger partnerships with suppliers.
At the same time, shifting demand is making some new markets more attractive for U.S. exports. Through research, companies can better understand how products align with new, growing markets where trade costs are more competitive.
3. Prepare early for peak season.
The 2025 midpoint also marks the moment when company leaders should consider planning for the holiday peak shopping and shipping season, and this year, early planning is more important than ever. The peak season to-do list is often long, and includes inventory forecasting and procurement planning, promotion and sales planning, and shipping and logistics strategizing.
This year, it may make sense to move up your orders and build your inventory early to avoid any delays due to unexpected order lead-time changes, and also to meet changing demand, as retail industry buyers are placing their holiday orders earlier according to recent data.
For small businesses, finding ways to minimize costs and operational headaches will be key, especially when it comes to customer service, shipping and returns. Companies selling to international customers can also work closely with their logistics partners to save time on customs paperwork and to understand changing customs requirements, while at the same time ensuring transparency with buyers about costs.
4. Focus on mobile and social-driven sales.
Boosting mobile and social media sales efforts in the second half of 2025 can help businesses achieve two goals: engage and satisfy customer demand, and streamline sales and marketing strategies. Especially as you plan for peak season, building your mobile and social tactics could help you stay efficient and competitive.
In many countries, mobile commerce is already the dominant form of e-commerce, and growth is expected to continue, with 9 in 10 shoppers saying they use their smartphones to shop, according to my organization’s 2025 E-commerce Trends Report. Social shopping is growing just as quickly—7 in 10 shoppers expect to primarily shop on social media within five years.
Even amid the concern about a slowdown in trade, opportunities differ by market, and new trade agreements could open fresh possibilities. By tracking tariffs, considering nearshoring, preparing for peak season early and optimizing mobile and social sales, small businesses can finish 2025 strong and seize growth opportunities across borders.
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